No Big IPL 2027 Auction Shake-Up, But Franchises' Real Battle Begins in December

An internal notice from the IPL Governing Council reached me last month. It clearly stated that no proposal to change the format of the 2027 mega auction is under consideration. Yet social media was flooded with rumors about increasing the number of retentions and bringing back the Right to Match card. Anyone who has followed cricket feeds over the past few weeks knows where these rumors come from—speculative estimates by certain agents looking to inflate their clients' value ahead of the mega auction. When I read the notice, I realized the real story is not about the auction format but about the financial calculations of the franchises.

According to the current IPL auction structure, each team can retain a maximum of four players, including up to three overseas players. Before a mega auction, this number is usually reduced because old squads need to be dismantled to create new balance. Sources in the board indicate that the same rule will remain in place for 2027. But the question arising here is—if the format is not changing, why are franchises preparing so early? The reason is simple. The gap between the prices in the 2026 auction and the retention fees in 2027 will determine how much space each team enters the mega auction with.

Over the past three weeks, I have had the opportunity to see portions of scouting reports from five franchises. Without naming them, a pattern is clear. Teams that have invested in young Indian players over the past two years are now getting stuck in retention fee calculations. Because the market value of a 20-year-old player is rising every season, but the retention fee is determined based on his last auction price. As a result, a team that bought him cheaply now sees a large gap between his actual market value and the retention fee. This gap is the biggest uncertainty before the mega auction.

The real problem for franchises is not the number of retentions but the calculation of retention fees. Let me give an example. Suppose a team bought a young batter for 2 crore rupees in the 2026 auction. If his performance over two seasons is average, his retention fee before the 2027 mega auction will be determined based on that 2 crore rupees. But his actual market value now is 8-10 crore rupees. If the team retains him, they can keep him at a lower price—but why would the player's agent agree? This is where agents create pressure demanding an increase in the retention fee.

Another layer has been added to this tension by the upcoming broadcast deal. The IPL's current media rights agreement expires after 2027. The board will want to finalize a new deal before the mega auction so that franchises have revenue projections. But the value of the new broadcast deal will depend on the presence of star players, and the ability to retain star players will depend on the retention fee structure. Understanding this cycle explains why franchises are so active right now.

A counter-question needs to be raised here. If I am wrong—suppose the board actually decides to increase the number of retentions. Will the franchises' problems decrease? By my calculation, they will not decrease but increase. Because more retentions mean more players' retention fees to bear, and those fees will be determined based on old auction prices. As a result, teams that bought good players cheaply over the past two seasons will benefit doubly. And teams that bought stars at high prices but got no performance will lose even more. In other words, increasing the number of retentions does not increase competitive balance but increases the penalty for past mistakes.

After Germany's World Cup exit in 2026, I wrote in an article that just as football has structural failures, cricket has them too—we just don't admit it. The IPL auction structure is one such framework that actually tests the quality of teams' long-term planning. Teams that have scouted well will face less pressure in retention fee calculations. Teams that bought players based only on names will now pay that bill.

My prediction is that the biggest surprise in the 2027 mega auction will come not from the retention list but from teams that will want to sign new contracts with their old players before the mega auction. Because prices in the mega auction market are determined by demand and supply, and demand is created by the presence of star players. A team that can retain its stars will have budget flexibility in the mega auction. A team that cannot will go to the market and find prices skyrocketing.

So the question is—do franchises really want a format change, or do they want an excuse to cover up their past mistakes? We will get the answer after the board's final decision in December.